Food and Water Insecurity
Introduction
Earth had its first billion people by 1804. It took us all of human history until 1804 to reach this number. The next billion only took 123 years. And the next, only 33 years. And so on. Currently, we're adding a billion new people to the planet every 12-13 years!
That tells us a lot about how stressed the planet is today. Until recently, the planet had enough food to sustain the human population as our numbers used to grow very slowly. The food available on the planet came from the energy that Earth received from the sun every year. This energy allowed plants to grow, which then became food for animals. And both plants and animals were consumed by humans.
This process started with the first humans on the planet and continued until the start of the Industrial Revolution.
What happened next was a huge change for humans. We discovered fossil fuels - previously hidden sources of energy - that allowed us to grow food more quickly and in much larger quantities. We were able to bypass the earlier, slower process of relying only on the sun's energy to feed ourselves. That's when we started to see our numbers start to grow more rapidly.
This rapid growth in population meant that, for a while, we were able to sustain our rapid population growth with the use of fossil fuels. However, we're now at an important transition point. With fossil fuel supplies expected to last less than a 100 years or so, we need to rethink our reliance on fossil fuels as the primary source of our energy consumption.
Definition
The United Nations' Committee on World Food Security defines food security to mean that 'all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life.'
With our numbers expected to hit 10 billion by 2050, humanity is at great risk of losing out on food and water security. Already, almost 828 million people go hungry every year as per the The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report compiled in 2022 by the United Nations. According to this report, there has been an increase of about 46 million people (going hungry) since 2020 and 150 million since the outbreak of the Covid 19 pandemic. These are extremely worrying numbers.
Another worrying aspect is that, while the global population will hit nearly 10 billion people by 2050, humanity's use of fresh potable water for its consumption (used for agriculture, industry, and other household purposes) has increased by nearly six times. To feed this rapidly growing population, our agricultural output will have to double but, at the same time, the amount of potable water and arable land available to us remains roughly the same.
This only goes to show that, even at our current population levels, Earth's carrying capacity isn't enough to provide for all of us. And our numbers are going up by a billion or so people approximately each decade.
Carrying capacity refers to the maximum number of species that a given area can sustain indefinitely. According to some sources, Earth reached its carrying capacity in 1970, which was over 50 years ago. Our population has gone up significantly since then.
However, estimating the carrying capacity for humans is not easy. Various factors play into this making the process quite uncertain. There's a growing movement of people who are opting to cycle, walk, or carpool to work. However, some of these people choosing these environmentally healthier options, may be working in energy intensive industries, indirectly minimising the positive impacts of not using a car. Some who practise vegetarianism may travel across the country or the world regularly, increasing their overall footprint. Since human choices aren't uniform, estimating an accurate number can be challenging.
Examples
However, the fact remains that the planet's resources are not infinite. It is then a question of how much longer Earth can support our growing populations. Already, we consume more than we should. This process is called Overshoot.
Earth Overshoot Day marks the date each year when humanity's resource consumption overshoots the resources that nature can regenerate that year. In 1970, it was on December 30th. In the year 2000, it moved back to early October. And in 2023, Earth Overshoot Day was due on July 27th.
The numbers don't lie - we have been consuming more and more resources each year and are using up each year's supply in just a few months.
What does this mean? It means that, to sustain our current population, we would need the resources that 1.75 Earths can provide. Just 1 Earth isn't enough. And by 2050, if we continue with the same consumption levels, we will need 3 Earths!
To be fair, new policies and regulations around the use of fossil fuels and the invention of more fuel-efficient buildings and vehicles could help reduce some of our consumption over the next few decades. Other changes we're making as a civilization such as relying on nuclear power, redesigning cities to make them more pedestrian-friendly, and the consistent increase in the use of solar and wind power will mean that our existing reserves of fossil fuels are likely to last a little longer than the most extreme current projections.
This doesn't mean we can continue with business as usual. It took between 400-500 million years for Earth to produce these fossil fuels. But it took us only 200 years to use up a large portion of these fossil fuels. And with our adding a billion new people to the planet every 12-13 years, the rate at which we use up these fuels will only accelerate.
Given that our existing fossil fuel reserves are declining rapidly and our population is growing far too quickly for Earth's carrying capacity to catch up, food and water insecurity are going to be extremely serious issues for humanity in the near future.
Some governments are already thinking ahead on this front but it's debatable whether their solutions will benefit the entire global population or just their citizens. For example, researchers at a Swedish University have claimed that almost 126 of the 195 countries recognized by the UN have bought land in other countries (according to their 2012 report) to meet their domestic demand for food. However, just three larger nations have bought the most land in other countries - China, the U.K. and the U.S. Critics claim this is a different kind of colonialism which takes advantage of other nations for their own purposes.
Since these kinds of solutions aren't systemic in nature, it's very likely they won't help solve the issue of food and water insecurity. Instead, countries will need to solve the issue at the root - by working on their SDG commitments, minimising their contribution towards climate change, reducing water and soil pollution, reducing soil erosion and loss of topsoil, and building better infrastructure to reduce food and water wastage.
Key Ideas to Focus On
Keeping the global population at a healthy level is also key to solving this issue. A greater number of people to be fed would inevitably require more food to be grown and more water to be consumed.
As citizens, we can play an important role in reducing our own wastage, to begin with. We can also dialogue with our political representatives to ensure our tax money is utilised in implementing systemic solutions that work for all, and not those that benefit only some stakeholders.
Food and Water is a disproportionately important issue because it affects so many other areas of human life and living. Without adequate food and water, the quality of our daily lives will be hugely affected thereby impacting our health, our work, our relationships with other stressed communities, etc. It could also lead to local and global conflicts over access to scarce resources.
In terms of priority, urgency, and overall impact, working on this issue could lead to a whole host of positive impacts that would align with some of our SDG commitments as well. As we can see, multiple approaches are available to us that could help reduce global food and water insecurity. What's important is to make sure that any approach we adopt as a country, comes from a systems perspective and not an individual one.